Rolex Farr 40 Pre Worlds & Worlds Weather Forecast
Forecast for Friday, Apr 18, 2008

Issued: Friday, 04/18/2008 at 06:49:42 (Eastern Sum. Time)

NOTICE: The National Weather Service has posted a SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for very rough seas this morning. This advisory will likely be allowed to expire by this afternoon as seas are forecast to subside. Monitor official National Weather Services forecasts and warnings on NOAA All Hazards Radio via your VHF radio.

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Synopsis: After a slower than predicted transition to the NE gradient late morning, the breeze behaved about as expected in the afternoon with a steady 10-14 knot, breeze trending more or less persistently to the right. Today promises to be even further right than yesterday, with the pressure gradient now support E/ESE winds over the race waters. The gradient is weaker than yesterday, so lighter winds are forecast to persist throughout the day.

High pressure that was centered over Georgia yesterday has moved off the southeast coast and is east of Jacksonville this morning. The high will move little today but it will slowly weaken. The wind on the race course is dominated by this high. Already this morning, winds are mainly E to ESE and they are expected to change little through the day.

Current Conditions: As of 0630 EDT, winds range between NE and SE across Miami and the coast waters. Speeds are mainly light between 4 and 9 knots. There had been a clear right trend earlier this morning, but most recently things have backed left.

Satellite shows mainly broken overcast offshore, but it appears the cloud area is breaking up and evaporating slowly. The radar is not showing any significant rain showers, however it is possible that some sprinkles are falling randomly from the cloud deck.

Forecast Discussion: Some light winds under 7 knots at first from the E/ESE, building through the late morning to become about 8-11 knots late morning through early afternoon. A period of lighter winds is possible again early afternoon before building on a thermal component in the mid-/later afternoon. Winds may increase to 9-12 knots for a time mid-afternoon. A right trend is possible in the afternoon with the thermal effect and veering gradient.

Weather: Scattered to broken overcast of cumulus this morning. Clouds breaking up to scattered conditions later this morning through afternoon. Some high altitude cirrus cloud may spread overhead from the west and northwest today.

Maximum Temperature: Warmer today. Upper 60sF this morning warming to low 80sF this afternoon.

Seas: Continued rough chop 3-6 ft this morning, decreasing. Becoming 2-4 ft this afternoon on a lingering NE swell.

Hedge: 1) Forecast Confidence – AVERAGE. Once again models are in good agreement. Today, the wind speed forecast is in better consensus than it has been on previous days. Although we expect the gradient to weaken with the high pressure showing clear signs of weakening, the winds this afternoon as forecast to accelerate on the afternoon thermal component. There could be a period of adjustment between the gradient and the thermal dominance, that’s why we show a slight decrease in winds around mid-day/early afternoon.

2) This morning through mid-day, the most likely character will be for the breeze to oscillate +/- 10 or 15 degrees. By the time the thermal component builds, a somewhat more persistent right trend is expected, especially after about 1400.

3) Although there is a fair amount of cloud around this morning, this should be decreasing. Cloud onshore and clearing offshore will signal the development of thermal component. If the cloud persists offshore, then expect the breeze to be more left-shifted and possibly lighter in the mid-afternoon period.

Outlook for Tomorrow: High pressure moves further off the coast while a cold front moves into the central Gulf of Mexico and to western Florida late in the day. The front is not expected to be particularly strong, however it will help to veer the gradient further around to the SE and possibly SSE through the day. More thermal effects are forecast in the afternoon, with a slightly stronger sea breeze component possible.
Weather: Partly cloudy, warmer and more humid. Slight chance of showers in the early morning and again in the later afternoon.