Rolex Farr 40 Pre Worlds & Worlds Weather Forecast
Forecast for Saturday, Apr 19, 2008

Issued: Saturday, 04/19/2008 at 06:02:07 (Eastern Sum. Time)

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Synopsis: A shifty day yesterday. The initial wind set up too far right and had to correct to the left at some point, and that took place in the early afternoon as forecast. From there a persistent – but not particularly steady - right trend settled over the race course with wind speeds recovering a bit on the support of an afternoon thermal component.

For today, the weather map looks very much as was forecast yesterday. High pressure has moved progressively off the southeast use coast and is not set up over the Atlantic waters between Bermuda and the northern Bahamas. As this high moves out over the warmer water, it is steadily weakening with a small ridge of high pressure extending back to central Florida. To the west, a weakening cold front associated with low pressure moving into the southeast US is slowly moving east. This front will have no significant impact on Miami weather, but it may help to further weaken the ridge and cause the gradient and winds to be lighter.

Current Conditions: Latest observations indicate a shallow layer of S/SSE winds 5-9 knots along the immediate coast. Further offshore, winds are SW close to 10 knots. Inshore, winds are indicating a land breeze from the N through W, but less than 5 knots.

Partly cloudy around the shore, but a layer of stratocumulus offshore. These clouds appear to be breaking up most recently. The radar is not picking up any rain showers under the relatively thin clouds offshore.

Forecast Discussion: SSE/SE winds may be variable near the immediate shore at first, but should fill from SE but only at 5-8 knots late morning through mid-day. A slight thermal effect may trend the winds left while increasing to 7-10 knots through the mid-afternoon. Winds may peak briefly near 11 knots today, but most of the day should be sub-10 knots. Look for a drop in wind late afternoon along with a developing right trend.

Weather: Mostly sunny with mainly passing trade wind cumulus cloud. Some heavier cumulus development onshore this afternoon. Becoming warmer and more humid.

Maximum Temperature: Near 70F this morning warming to the low 80sF this afternoon.

Seas: A lingering NE swell 3-4ft, decreasing. Light wind chop.

Hedge: 1) Forecast Confidence – AVERAGE. Good agreement among the forecast models today, with light winds expected much of the day. Could be especially tricky through the mid-day/early afternoon if the winds are lighter than forecast.

2) Winds will start out rather right-shifted from the SSE at first this morning, but these should be backing left toward the SE later this morning. Some further backing is forecast through early afternoon, but once the thermal component starts to take hold, winds should stabilize for the mid-afternoon.

3) Like yesterday, there will be some large oscillations in direction across the course. It will be difficult to see the pressure on the water with the sea surface rather mixed up by the still choppy swell. The pressure is likely to be patchy, especially in the first race of the day.

4) A few cumulus clouds will move through from offshore. The winds just ahead of and underneath clouds will be quite light, so this area should be avoided if practical. On the back side (east) of any clouds moving toward the beach, a couple knots of extra pressure may be available for a short time.